- Bitcoin’s price path is now detaching from halving-cycle norms due to ETF flows and treasury buys.
- Standard Chartered eyes $135K in Q3, sees stronger base despite ETF outflows and possible short-term dips.
Bitcoin is expected to reach $135,000 before the close of September, according to Standard Chartered, which cited rising institutional activity and inflows into exchange-traded funds as major factors behind its forecast. The global bank has raised its price target amid stronger investor behavior not seen in earlier cycles.
Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, believes this trend has shifted Bitcoin’s price trajectory away from patterns tied to previous halving cycles. In his July 1 analysis, Kendrick pointed to strong ETF inflows and increased corporate treasury purchases as two primary drivers behind this change.
“Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a ‘halving’ cycle,” Kendrick stated. Previously, those cycles were corrected in a year and a half, but the current environment appears different.
Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to hit $135K by Q3 2025 and break $200K by year-end.
The bank cites growing corporate treasury demand and strong ETF inflows as key drivers.
Long-term target: $500K by 2028. pic.twitter.com/dmnReGCRtb
— Satoshi Club (@esatoshiclub) July 2, 2025
Bitcoin Halving Effects Offset by Institutional Demand
The April 2024 halving event cut block rewards in half, a pattern that followed earlier events roughly every four years. Earlier halvings were accompanied by a huge spike followed by a correction. But Kendrick pointed out that ETF demand and company purchases were missing in earlier cycles in 2016 and 2020, so it is possible that last year’s outcome is different.
According to Standard Chartered, total ETF and corporate buying reached 245,000 BTC during the second quarter. Kendrick expects this figure to rise in the upcoming quarters. These figures suggest the market has stronger foundational support this year, even as short-term volatility may continue.
Still, Standard Chartered doesn’t rule out short-term fluctuations. The bank warned that late Q3 and early Q4 might witness some price shakiness, echoing the correction phases seen after previous halving periods.
ETF Outflows Hint at Near-Term Pressure
ETF inflows remained positive for 15 days through June, but that streak stopped on July 1. SoSoValue reports that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $342.3 million that day. That drop is 7% of the $4.8 billion collected in the last two weeks.
Despite that setback, Kendrick remains optimistic for the remainder of the year. He believes Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 by the end of December and reach $500,000 by 2028.
As of July 2, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow band between $105,000 and $108,800. Market watchers are closely monitoring $106,500 as a key pivot level. Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC stated that a break back above this level will be a sign of a bigger advance.
AlphaBTC pointed out that a four-hour close above $109,000 might set Bitcoin up for new highs. However, a rapid decline below $104,000 might drop it below the $100,000 level and ignite further declines.
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