Key Takeaways
- Polymarket’s odds of a $2T-plus first-day Anthropic close hit 66% earlier today, down from 74% on Sept. 10.
- Nvidia is weighing up to $10B as an anchor investor in a raise of as much as $100B, per Reuters.
- Polymarket gives October 61% odds for the listing and 81% odds Anthropic outvalues bitcoin by Dec. 31.
Two Markets, One Gap
The figure Polymarket posted on Sunday comes from its Anthropic IPO closing market cap contract, which has drawn about $744,000 in volume. Add up every bracket from $2 trillion upward and the total lands at 65.5%.
A different contract asks what Anthropic will be worth at its IPO price, before a single share trades. There, the favorite is $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion at 43.5%, and the odds of pricing at $2 trillion or more add up to just 35.3%.
Nvidia is in talks to become an anchor investor in the offering, potentially putting in up to $10 billion, Reuters reported on Friday. Anthropic is seeking as much as $100 billion at a valuation of about $2 trillion and is expected to list before the November midterm elections. One version of the report put the target as high as $2.3 trillion. The discussions are preliminary, and terms could change at any time, a source told Unusual Whales.
Anthropic has also committed to 1 gigawatt of compute capacity on Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems.
What Buyers Would Be Paying For
Anthropic told shareholders its adjusted operating income will be positive for a second straight quarter, with gross margins above 80% before revenue shared with partners such as Amazon and the cost of training models.
Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate reached about $65 billion by July, and its May funding round valued the company at $965 billion. The company filed confidentially for its IPO on June 1.
The Odds Already Cooled
From the outside looking in, the $2 trillion-plus total stood at 46.2% on Aug. 14, subsequently jumped to 74% by Aug. 26 and was still at 73.8% on Sept. 10, per Polymarket’s price history. It has since slipped to 65.5%, with the Nvidia report landing in between.
Timing odds have moved too, as the chance of an October listing stood near 87% on Sept. 4 and now sits at 61%, with November at about 21%.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said last week that “right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public,” ruling out a 2026 listing for his company. A day later, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told CBS that “for too long the industry lied to people about the fact that this technology had risks.” Traders still give Anthropic a 94% chance of reaching the public markets before OpenAI.
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