Is $45,000 in Play For Bitcoin This Year? Decoding BTC Accumulation Behavior

Bitcoin has rallied 80% this year. After starting this week on a promising note, the world’s largest cryptocurrency regained its foothold at $30,000, but bears were quick to take intercept and pushed the price below it recently.

While the rally may have stalled near this psychologically crucial threshold, its strong market performance so far is a stark contrast to 2022, essentially indicating a favorable regime shift is underway.

More importantly, BTC whales continued to exhibit an aggressive accumulation trend.

Accumulation Spree

After a month-long dumping spree, whale addresses holding 100-1k BTC are back in the accumulation game. According to data from the crypto analytic firm Santiment, this cohort of investors has added more than 20,000 BTC in their bags in the past two days.

In addition to whales raking in Bitcoins, Glassnode data suggests that another cohort of investors, known as “Shrimp,” with less than 1 BTC, has also “meaningfully” grown their on-chain balance.

The analysis said that the shift in accumulation behavior was prominent after the catastrophic fall of Terra ecosystem tokens last year. Following this event, the retail participants accelerated their “absorption” of BTC and managed to increase their relative share of the circulating supply by 1.78%.

This accumulation trend will be crucial in helping Bitcoin sustain the rally longer.

Sell in May and go away?

So far, Bitcoin has outperformed traditional risk assets, such as the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, by a significant margin. The crypto asset could be poised for gains if the pattern continues.

Industry experts believe that Bitcoin is closely following its early 2019 surge, and prices could peak at around $45,000 in May. In its recent report, K33 Research said that the drawdown and recovery cycle is remarkably similar to the pattern seen in the 2018-19 bear market in terms of length and trajectory.

While a 1:1 mirroring of the current drawdown to previous drawdowns may not transpire, the resemblance to the 2018 drawdown is staggering, the analysis observed.

“While history is far from likely to repeat in a similar fashion if the fractal were to continue – BTC would peak around May 20 at $45,000.”

K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde noted that Bitcoin’s year-to-date rise has all the signs of a “hated bullish move,” which he explained to be “a rally where holders feel underexposed after a highly traumatic year, where investors are de-risked in anticipation of further downside.” The hated rally of 2019 concluded with a “significant blow-off top” before the flagship crypto resumed trading at a 40-60% drawdown from its 2017 all-time high.