Has Bitcoin Really Entered a Bear Market? Analyst Weighs In

Bitcoin’s recent price movement has sparked debate among analysts over whether the original cryptocurrency has entered a bear market.

Renowned analyst Ali Martinez recently shared an in-depth analysis assessing Bitcoin’s (BTC) trend using multiple technical indicators and on-chain data. In his study, Martinez suggested that while BTC might be shifting into a bearish phase, certain factors could still support a recovery.

Key Indicators Signal Bearish Momentum

First, Martinez highlighted the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, a metric tracking Bitcoin movement between spot and derivative exchanges. According to the analyst, BTC is currently in a “corrective phase,” often marked by declining prices or stabilization after a strong rally.

Bitcoin has corrected 23% from its peak of over $109,000 in late January during President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

He also pointed to the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio, which has turned negative—a historical signal of weakening momentum. Additionally, his Market Cycle Indicator suggests that Bitcoin could be in the early stages of a bear market, aligning with past downturns.

Further evidence comes from large investor activity, particularly among miners and whales. On-chain data shared by Martinez showed that miners recently sold over $27 million in bitcoin profits, which often signals a shift toward caution in the market. Meanwhile, whale activity shows that major BTC holders have liquidated more than $260 million, adding to overall selling pressure.

Compounding these concerns is a sharp decline in capital inflows—new investments entering Bitcoin. Monthly inflows have dropped significantly from $135 billion in December 2024 to just $4 billion on March 18, 2025, indicating weaker demand and a potential lack of fresh buying power.

Can Bitcoin Hold Key Support Levels?

Despite these bearish signals, Martinez identified key support levels that could stabilize Bitcoin’s price. According to the analyst, the $66,000–$69,000 range has emerged as a crucial zone where buyers might step in. To back this, Martinez shared a chart from IntoTheBlock that shows that 750,000 investors purchased 313,000 BTC around the $69,000 price range.

He also shared Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which suggests strong support near $69,354—further reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin could find a floor in this range. Moreover, he pointed out that the Mayer Multiple and Bitcoin’s position relative to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests $66,000 as another critical level to watch.

However, Martinez mentioned a potential bullish scenario tied to global liquidity. According to his analysis, rising liquidity levels have historically helped BTC recover, pointing to April as a possible turning point.

If the leading crypto asset manages to reclaim $93,700 as support, it could signal a renewed uptrend, with a potential move toward $111,000, Martinez said.

Despite these bearish concerns, BTC surged 4% to enter a 10-day high of $85,900 following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady.