- Analysts at CryptoQuant, a firm specializing in crypto market data and analysis, have identified two key signals that may indicate the Bitcoin bull run is likely to continue.
- Ki Young Ju states that institutional demand for Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds remains robust, suggesting that the bull run will persist.
CryptoQuant analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s (BTC) market movements, and according to CEO Ki Young Ju, the ongoing bull cycle is still far from over. In a recent post on X, Ju shared insights into the two key signals that could indicate when the current Bitcoin bull run reaches its peak and begins to reverse.
#Bitcoin bull cycle isn’t over.
The buying engine for paper Bitcoins is still running. In 2021, the downturn came two months after GBTC inflows dried up.
No need to rush calling the cyclical top until ETFs, MSTR, and institutional buying slow down. pic.twitter.com/fN1HTdyIVD
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) January 31, 2025
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) as a Key Indicator
Ki Young Ju points to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) as a critical indicator for Bitcoin’s future price action. Ju noted that during the 2021 downturn, Bitcoin’s sharp market decline came two months after the inflows into GBTC dried up. For context, in 2021, GBTC traded at a premium of over 100%, meaning its share price was higher than the value of the Bitcoin it held. However, in February 2021, this premium flipped into a discount, signaling waning institutional demand.
By April 2021, institutional interest via GBTC significantly slowed, and without this robust demand, Bitcoin’s price became susceptible to selling pressure, culminating in a crash that saw Bitcoin plummet from $64,000 to below $30,000 by May 2021.
Fast forward to 2024, the situation changed. The GBTC discount disappeared after the trust was converted into a spot Bitcoin ETF, which allowed for redemptions and reduced its structural issues. This shift has reinvigorated institutional interest, and Bitcoin’s price has remained strong, signaling that the current bull cycle is not yet over.
Institutional Demand via Bitcoin ETFs
Ju also highlighted that there is strong institutional interest in Bitcoin, especially through ETFs. The rate of this accumulation has picked up since October 2024, with Bitcoin ETFs currently holding around 1.163 million BTC, as reported by CoinMetrics. This amount is valued at over $123 billion, representing roughly 5.94% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.
Several major Bitcoin ETFs, such as Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI), Franklin Templeton Digital Holdings Trust (EZBC), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), and VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL), have seen growing demand. As we reported, Grayscale Investments also launched the Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF (MNRS), giving investors a chance to gain exposure to the Bitcoin mining industry without directly owning BTC.
Another signal supporting Bitcoin’s bull run is the persistent institutional demand. Companies like MicroStrategy have continued their Bitcoin purchases, with MicroStrategy now holding the largest position at 471,107 BTC. Other significant institutional players include Mara Holdings with 44,893 BTC and Riot Platforms with 17,722 BTC.
Ju believes that the bull run will only end when ETF inflows and institutional demand begin to slow down. ”No need to rush calling the cyclical top until ETFs, MSTR, and institutional buying slow down.” he stated in the post.
The inauguration of President Donald Trump on January 20 has ushered in pro-crypto regulations and a potential national crypto stockpile, further boosting the outlook for the crypto market. Trump’s pro-crypto stance includes possible tax exemptions on US-based crypto assets and the rescission of Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, a rule that previously forced banks to treat Bitcoin as a liability. Bitcoin is currently trading at $101,724, reflecting a 2.25% decline on the day. This drop follows a weak performance over the past week, during which the cryptocurrency fell by 2.51%.
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