Casino Lobby Blames Prediction Markets for First Flat NFL Betting Season

Trade Body Forecast Lands Soon After Supreme Court Enters Picture

The American Gaming Association published its annual NFL forecast on Sept. 4, five days before the season opens with a Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. The projection of $29.5 billion in legal handle covers preseason games, futures booked as early as March, the playoffs, and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027, against $29.4 billion last season – the most significant slowdown in recent years.

From last September through May, the amount wagered with U.S. sportsbooks grew 4%, ESPN reported, compared to 14% over the same period a year earlier. Missouri is the only state to have launched legal betting since 2025, but the AGA is pointing to a different culprit for the limited growth.

AGA president and chief executive Bill Miller stated the following in the association’s release: “Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.” He added that the platforms are “dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” and that their refusal to follow state and tribal rules means “consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”

Per the AGA, sports contracts make up roughly 80% of Kalshi’s volume, an estimated $5.1 billion of which came from users aged 18 to 20 – which is below the legal wagering age in most jurisdictions where sports betting is legal. The forecast also claims that Kalshi and Polymarket have diverted more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue between them since 2025, against an industry the AGA says generates about $18 billion a year in sports betting tax and supports 1.8 million jobs.

The AGA, whose membership has been reshaped by a wave of departures over the past year, calculated the forecast by applying national handle growth so far in 2026 to last year’s estimated NFL total, then using football-specific reporting from selected states to work out the professional football share – an extrapolation from a prior estimate rather than a measurement.

Not everyone shares the trade body’s cloudy outlook. Per ESPN and Rotowire, industry research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming found that while NFL trading volume on prediction markets in August ran 4.6 times higher than in August last year, with projections that the season’s total could roughly double to $36.8 billion, and analysis suggesting that “44% of that volume comes from California and Texas alone, and 69% from states with no sports betting at all”. An important caveat that is often missing from coverage: this figure is not directly comparable to sportsbook handle, as volume counts contracts that change hands repeatedly, while handle counts money staked once.

Optimove Insights polled 926 U.S. NFL bettors in August and found 84% had heard of prediction markets, with 60% saying they planned to trade, buy, or sell event contracts during the year. The marketing firm cautioned in the same report that stated plans typically overstate action and that actual participation will likely fall below 60%.

Prediction markets’ regulatory fight and their conflict with established sports betting and casino providers continue to escalate, with the highest court of the land likely to weigh in on the matter soon. A federal appeals court ruled last week that Nevada may enforce its gaming laws against Kalshi’s sports contracts, and New Jersey asked the Supreme Court on Sept. 2 to settle a circuit split on whether states retain that authority.

The NFL has entered the argument directly: chief compliance officer Sabrina Perel wrote to prediction market operators last week that it is “deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges,” in a letter obtained by ESPN. The Coalition for Prediction Markets did not respond to a request for comment to the sports news site.