Breakout, Trade Deal, and M2 Growth Signal Next Leg Up

Bitcoin (BTC) may be gearing up for its next parabolic move, possibly toward $130,000, if an analyst is correctly reading a multi-pronged surge in technical, macroeconomic, and geopolitical signals.

According to pseudonymous trader Doctor Profit, after months of struggling beneath a critical long-term resistance, the flagship cryptocurrency has finally broken above a trendline dating back to the 2021 all-time high, confirming a bullish breakout that he argues the market has yet to fully price in.

Bullish Breakout and Trade Deal Fuel Market Optimism

In a detailed X post on July 28, Doctor Profit highlighted Bitcoin’s decisive monthly breakout above its multi-year diagonal resistance. The said level rejected bulls four months in a row, between November 2024 and February 2025. July’s clean break and retest on the monthly chart signal the beginning of what he calls “the next leg up,” setting the stage for an advance toward $130,000.

Adding fuel to the rally is the recent trade deal between the United States and the European Union announced by President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on July 27. The agreement includes $750 billion in U.S. energy exports and $600 billion in EU investments into U.S. infrastructure, measures expected to lift U.S. stock markets and, by extension, crypto assets like BTC.

“This is very bullish for the mid and long term as there is no longer fear due to a tariff war between countries, especially and most importantly between the US and Europe.”

The announcement had an immediate impact, with Bitcoin rising from $114,500 to over $119,000, while BNB soared to a new all-time high above $850.

Doctor Profit also noted the quietly increasing M2 money supply, reinforcing the sense of macro bullishness. According to him, despite the Federal Reserve’s ongoing “quantitative tightening,” M2 has expanded by 2.3% year-to-date, with May and June seeing the most aggressive monthly increase at +0.63%.

Historically, every 1% increase in M2 has roughly corresponded to a 30% to 35% rise in BTC. The analyst suggested that if the correlation holds, Bitcoin could rally another 15% to17.5%, which would land it squarely in the $130,000 zone.

Price Analysis and Broader Market Trends

At the time of this writing, BTC was trading at $119,389, marking a modest 0.9% gain in the last 24 hours and 0.7% over the week. The asset’s performance is more solid across longer time frames, gaining 11.3% in 30 days and 75.6% across the past year. However, its short-term moves lag behind Ethereum (ETH) and select altcoins.

Nevertheless, the OG crypto’s fundamental drivers remain intact. ETF inflows continue to absorb more BTC than is being mined, particularly from issuers like BlackRock, acting as long-term vacuum cleaners. And with the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC decision due this Wednesday, where a rate hold is almost certain, Doctor Profit believes the stage is set for continued liquidity expansion.