Crypto analyst Scott Melker noted that Bitcoin is currently about 1,080 days removed from its last major cycle low. Historically, market peaks have occurred between 1,060 and 1,070 days after those lows, which places the asset at a critical point where a deviation from previous cycles could become statistically meaningful.
Traditionally, Bitcoin peaks 12 to 18 months after a halving event. The most recent one took place in April 2024. If that historical pattern were to repeat, Melker said, a market top would be expected between April and October 2025.
However, he pointed out that the current market lacks the typical “mania phase.” To top that, altcoins have yet to surge, and investor sentiment remains weak. Many traders have either sold early or stayed on the sidelines, according to his analysis.
Bitcoin Breaking Free from Old Patterns
Melker suggested that investors’ attempts to front-run the four-year cycle may have altered or “broken” it, and that once the early selling pressure subsides, Bitcoin could begin following a more mature, liquidity-driven trajectory into 2026.
“Eventually, the four-year cycle will break – if not now, then probably next time. Whether that means Bitcoin’s entering a new era of institutional flows and real-world adoption, or simply rewriting its pattern, is what makes this moment so fascinating.”
A similar perspective was shared by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes last month when he argued that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle is becoming obsolete. He then asserted that the current bull market could extend far longer due to loose global monetary policy and dismissed the rigid application of the four-year cycle, claiming that traders overlook the real drivers, such as liquidity conditions and credit trends in the US and China.
Hayes explained that previous Bitcoin peaks were tied more to tightening in dollar and yuan credit than to halving schedules, suggesting today’s environment is fundamentally different.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Obsolete?
More recently, PlanB, the creator of Bitcoin’s well-known stock-to-flow model, has also begun questioning the cycle. Responding to bearish views that $126,000 marked the market top and that 2026 will usher in a bear phase, he called such assumptions a “big misunderstanding.”
PlanB argued that just three completed cycles are insufficient to establish a dependable pattern and stressed that it is “absolutely not guaranteed” for Bitcoin to peak 18 months after a halving, which would imply October 2025.
He suggested that the next market top could just as easily occur in 2026, 2027, or even 2028, adding that he is now more focused on Bitcoin’s average price levels rather than short-term peaks and troughs. According to him, the market has yet to undergo a “fundamental phase transition,” which could either lead to a major rally or a more stable, institutionally influenced regime – both outcomes he considers bullish.
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