Bitcoin Price Recovers, But Futures Sentiment Weakens

Bitcoin experienced volatile price swings in the second part of Q1 2025 as it struggled to reclaim its record high of over $109,000. The start of Q2 was quite painful as it briefly slid to new yearly lows around $74,500.

Although there’s been a slight rebound this week, sentiment among futures traders appears to have grown increasingly wary.

Futures Market Sentiment Dips

According to recent analysis from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s impressive rally from November 2024 to February 2025 has not been matched by a sustained rise in the futures market sentiment.

This index peaked momentarily during this rally but then declined, signaling growing caution and possible profit-taking despite bullish price action. From February 2025 onward, sentiment has continued to deteriorate and has diverged from price levels that have remained relatively elevated in the $70k-$80k range.

Such a trend suggests increasing fear or waning enthusiasm in the derivatives market, potentially influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory developments, or expectations of a market correction. Technical observations further reveal that the sentiment index is currently hovering near 0.4, approaching a key support level around 0.2, while facing resistance near 0.8.

This positioning highlighted a bearish tilt in futures sentiment, as per the crypto analytic platform. The weakening sentiment, even amid strong price levels, may indicate an accumulation phase or potential consolidation. CryptoQuant said that unless new catalysts reignite confidence, the low sentiment levels could lead to downside pressure or stagnation in Bitcoin’s price.

Cautious Optimism?

Reflexivity Research shared a similar outlook and noted that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained at 35 this week, which was indicative of a cautiously bearish sentiment. While sentiment has stabilized from last week, easing extreme fear, investors are still cautious due to macroeconomic concerns and recent market turbulence.

However, the modest rise in the index suggests that panic is fading, which could set the stage for a more balanced market mood if positive news surfaces.

Meanwhile, data also indicated that Bitcoin’s recent recovery is driven by improving fundamentals and easing global tariff concerns. On-chain metrics support the uptrend, including a rising Network Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) and a decrease in exchange supply, which signaled reduced short-term selling pressure.