- Exchange reserves fell to 2018 lows, signaling long-term accumulation as investors.
- Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by December 2024.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose 1.89% as of this writing, currently trading at $93,567, according to CoinMarketCap. This pullback follows repeated attempts to surpass the $100,000 threshold.
Bitcoin Exchange Reserves at 2018 Levels
According to data, Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges have reached a level last seen in September 2018 – 2.508 million BTC as of November 27. This drop occurs during a market correction. However, the lower exchange reserves depict a general pattern that investors are setting.
This accumulation is in contrast to what was witnessed during the bear markets in 2021 and 2022, where exchange reserves increased as sellers’ pressure intensified. The current drop in reserves suggests a change in investor sentiment, especially the move by investors from trading to investing for the long term. Such action often indicates a belief in the future price appreciation of Bitcoin.
On-Chain Metrics Highlight Market Trends
Other on-chain metrics for Bitcoin also indicate that the current bull market is here to stay. The Short-Term Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which indicates whether short-term holders are selling at a profit or loss, rose to 1.03 on November 23. This level shows profit-taking during the early stage of market correction.
According to historical trends, when short-term holders sell at a loss, which makes the SOPR fall below 1, it is an indication that the market is stabilizing. This scenario is usually a signal of a further weakening of weaker investors, which can be followed by a reversal.
Another important metric is the MVRV Z-Score, which indicates that Bitcoin is still undervalued. As of November 27, the metric is still below the red zone that has warned of market tops in the past. This shows that Bitcoin’s price is reasonable and supports the idea of further price increases.
Path to $100,000 in 2024
According to technical analysis of Bitcoin, there is high possibility of the digital currency hitting $100000 by December 2024. The cryptocurrency has recently retested the key support area that comprises the 100-day EMA at $93,000, the 0.236 Fib retracement level at $90,250, and the ascending trend line. Also, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back from the oversold levels, revealing the buying pressure has picked up again.
Market analysts such as Peter Brandt, and Weslad have given their analysis on the current bull market of Bitcoin. Brandt noted that Bitcoin has a classical pattern of price booms and busts, with busts being about 80% of the peak.
Weslad, a popular analyst on TradingView, has recently adjusted his long-term prognosis for Bitcoin to $105,764 based on the Ascending Channel setup, which is a positive model that supports further gains. However, he warned investors they should prepare for a possible pull back which could offer good points of entry.
Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered echoed similar sentiments, expecting further near-term losses, with Bitcoin perhaps sliding to $88,700. He attributed the decline to changes in the US Treasury yields after Scott Bessent was appointed as Treasury secretary.
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