Bitcoin Metrics Mirror 2017 and 2020 Patterns, Next Stop: New All-Time Highs?

On-chain signals reveal Bitcoin’s rally is far from finished.

After a week of volatility, Bitcoin briefly recovered to over $112,000 on Monday before a modest decline below that level. The liquidation jitters still linger among market participants, and the turbulence shook short-term sentiment. Despite this, experts say that the bull market appears intact.

In fact, CryptoQuant revealed that several on-chain signals are pointing to further upside potential.

Mid-Cycle Reset

An important metric in this regard, the MVRV ratio – which measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s market value and the average cost basis of its holders- has cooled back toward the 2.0 level. Previous instances have shown that this range has been a mid-cycle reset zone rather than a danger signal. Investors remain comfortably in profit, but without the kind of overheated conditions that often precede sharp corrections.

In past cycles, CryptoQuant found that similar consolidations in the MVRV ratio represented the beginning of renewed, stronger expansions.

The behavior of long-term holders further validated this outlook.

On-chain data shows that profit-taking among these investors has diminished considerably, and those who have held coins for months or years are largely choosing to sit tight. Their conviction not only demonstrates confidence in Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory but also effectively tightens supply in the market. Such a reduction in selling pressure creates a supportive backdrop for future price increases, particularly if new demand emerges.

These factors collectively mirror crucial “mid-cycle” phases seen in both 2017 and 2020, when Bitcoin slowed before breaking into more powerful rallies. Recent volatility, then, looks less like the exhaustion of the bitcoin bull market and more like a healthy pause, which the analytic platform described as a “digestion” phase where excesses are cleared before momentum resumes.

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“If history rhymes, today’s consolidation could mark the groundwork for the next major leg upward – suggesting the bull market is alive and well.”

$140K to $170K BTC Is Next

Prominent market commentator Mr. Wall Street also observed that Bitcoin remains firmly above support levels despite recent turbulence in his detailed technical and macro analysis. He noted that BTC is currently hovering just above the same support zone where he opened long positions near $107,500, only 12% below its all-time high of $125,000.

Dismissing the calls for a cycle top and an impending bear market, the analyst argued that “none of the major macro indicators have flashed,” and that market structure remains intact. He even went on to emphasize that current weakness stems from temporary macro uncertainty rather than structural distribution, and added that “there’s no imbalance nor geopolitical event that can trigger a down move from here.”

Going forward, the analyst expects a highly bullish Q4 and predicts new highs in the $140,000-$170,000 range before the cycle peak is reached. He also forecasts up to six Federal Reserve rate cuts within the next six months. For traders, he identified the 4-hour EMA200 as the next short-term target and explained that the current region offers an attractive entry for new longs. Upcoming US economic releases, including job openings, ISM data, and unemployment figures, could spark short-term volatility, but he maintained that the broader bull trend remains unshaken.