Spot demand has risen since July to over 62,000 BTC monthly, a level previously seen before rallies in 2020, 2021, and 2024.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to start Q4 2025 under conditions similar to those a year ago. According to a recent CryptoQuant report, its Bull Score Index has remained between 40 and 50, matching the range seen at the end of Q3 2024.
It is worth noting that this range is considered a threshold zone, with levels above 50 marking a clear shift to bullish territory. In fact, when BTC broke past that point in October 2024, it went on to surge from $70,000 to $100,000 for the first time in its history.
Buying Pressure Builds
As the new quarter begins, several indicators now point to a supportive environment. A recent CryptoQuant report highlights rising Bitcoin demand, steady stablecoin liquidity, and fewer unrealized gains among market participants, which can limit selling pressure.
One key driver of this environment is spot demand, which has been increasing since July and now stands at a monthly pace of more than 62,000 BTC. That expansion is considered a necessary condition for rallies, and it was also present in late 2020, 2021, and 2024.
Beyond the spot market, large wallets are also contributing to the trend. Whale holdings are rising at an annual pace of 331,000 BTC, up from 255,000 during Q4 2024 and 238,000 at the start of Q4 2020. This stands in sharp contrast to 2021, when whale balances fell by about 197,000 BTC. Current data suggests accumulation remains firmly above trend and far from contraction levels.
Alongside whale activity, institutional demand through the U.S.-based ETFs could also prove influential in the months ahead. During the same quarter last year, ETFs increased their holdings by 213,000 coins, equal to a 71 percent rise.
Key Level to Watch
The on-chain report suggests that inflows similar to, or larger than, past cycles are possible if conditions align in 2025. Such movements would add to the already strong base of demand across whales and spot markets.
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Despite this favorable setup, Bitcoin has not yet triggered a breakout. CryptoQuant notes that the key level to watch is the Trader’s On-chain Realized Price, currently around $116,000.
Crossing above that threshold would return the apex coin to the “BULL” phase of the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator. On-chain models place the next potential range between $160,000 and $200,000 if momentum builds
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