Raoul Pal – CEO of Global Macro Investor – predicted the bottom in the crypto markets will be in within the next five weeks, saying he may start buying heavily as early as next week. He compared the current bear market to the violent crypto plunge in 2014 while suggesting that the ongoing bloodbath could be a 10x opportunity for investors.
The Bottom Is Near
In a Twitter thread on Tuesday, Pal said, as a macro investor, he expected global assets will largely recover in 12 to 18 months, as “inflation and recession will be in the rear view mirror.” He believes the Feds would lower interest rates, despite the commodity prices possibly hiking up in the coming year and a half.
According to his analysis of bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which currently sits at 31, slightly above the ATL at 28, he expected the bottom to come in within the next five weeks. The index is a momentum indicator that analyzes how much an asset is overbought or oversold based on the magnitudes of recent price changes.
As CryptoPotato reported on Monday, the index’s monthly performance had reached its lowest point ever when the primary cryptocurrency dipped below $24k.
Pal claimed he might start shopping next week, admitting that timing the exact bottom is nearly impossible. Citing his experience of “having worn an 82% drawdown in 2014 and then 10x upside after,” he implied that the current circumstances reminded him of the previous incident and reiterated his view of crypto as a long-term investment rather than a trade.
Recession Ahead
In a separate thread, he elaborated on his prior prediction that the U.S. is in a pending recession state, reiterating that “the tightening of financial conditions caused by commodities, rates, and the dollar” has pushed the markets on the brink of a full collapse. In the short term, he believes the U.S. economy is in trouble.
In his view, ISM – a manufacturing index that measures the monthly change in production levels across the U.S. economy – will expectedly slump as the general demand for products has dropped sharply amid rising inflation. In the mid of the 70s, Pal argued, the index fell sharply due to inflation, causing equities to collapse and forcing the Feds to lower rates. He hinted that the same playbook might happen again.
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