Remember the ‘Uptober’ narrative? October, the month that kicks off Q4, is promised to be a bullish one. There were high hopes for the 2025 edition as well.
And it all started on the right foot as BTC exploded out of the gate and peaked above $126,000 to chart a new all-time high. Thus, it had added over $16,000 of value in the span of just 10 days. However, things reversed just as quickly, and it lost even more ground against the greenback in the following 10 days. Here are some of the possible reasons behind this massive crash.
Trump-Led Uncertainty
The most significant price collapse, which occurred at the end of the previous business week, was largely attributed to global political uncertainty prompted by US President Donald Trump. The POTUS threatened China with a new wave of tariffs after accusing its authorities of a lack of transparency in certain areas.
Although such threats have taken place occasionally ever since he took office, BTC reacted with an immediate correction from over $122,000 to under $117,000. The situation worsened in the following hours, especially since futures positions started to get wrecked in an overly leveraged market.
The results were violent to say the least as bitcoin slumped to $110,000 on some exchanges, and all the way down to $101,000 on others. What’s particularly interesting here is that the entire calamity might have been one big misunderstanding between the two superpowers. Reports started to emerge that it was exaggerated, and the tension eased in the following days. With it, BTC’s price recovered to $116,000.
The focus then turned to another flammable geopolitical scene – the Ukraine/Russia war. On Thursday, Trump met with Russia’s Putin, and BTC started to lose traction as the meeting was taking place. On Friday, the POTUS was visited by Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Reports indicated that the Ukrainian leader might not receive the requested Tomahawk cruise missiles.
It’s also worth mentioning the US government shutdown, which has continued for over two weeks now.
US Banking Crisis?
The US banking system saw shades of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank when two regional organizations – Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance – published some controversial data that stirred fear into investors. The former disclosed a $50 million charge-off tied to two commercial loans in California, while the latter initiated a fraud lawsuit against a borrower, which fueled doubts about its loan portfolio quality.
Investors were spooked not only in the US but also in Asia and Europe, as evidenced by the drop in stock prices on Friday for major banks such as Deutsche Bank, Barclays, and Société Générale.
Although BTC is supposed to be the answer to cracks in the traditional financial system, such crises typically harm it, especially in the short term.
ETF Exodus
After an impressive 9-day period that started in late September, in which the spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $6 billion, the trend reversed at the end of the previous business week, with a minor net outflow of $4.5 million.
However, the withdrawals intensified on Monday ($326.4 million), Wednesday ($104.1 million), and particularly on Thursday when more than $530 million left these financial products. Friday was also in the red, with more than $366 million leaving the funds.
The total amount withdrawn from the US-based ETFs exceeded $1.2 billion for the week, which undoubtedly increases the pressure on the underlying asset.
Gold Up, BTC Down
In times of uncertainty, investors tend to flock to safe-haven assets. Although this year has had its ups and downs, they have shown a somewhat different approach. Gold has been the preferred investment tool for many, which is evident from its massive rally in 2025.
It charts new all-time highs almost daily, with the latest being at almost $4,400/oz on Friday. At the same time, BTC’s performance has been quite underwhelming lately. This could prove critics like Peter Schiff right (at least for the moment) that the precious metal is still the preferred choice, even though many BTC proponents have argued in the past decade that the cryptocurrency is ‘digital gold.’
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