There is an increasing narrative among crypto market analysts that the next bull market and cycle peak could come as soon as Bitcoin halving.
This follows months of consolidation where BTC has failed several times to break above $30K, and volumes and volatility have fallen to record lows.
On Aug. 10, market analyst “CrediBULL Crypto” told his 344,000 X followers that the next BTC halving in April/May 2024 “will likely mark our bull cycle TOP rather than the ‘start’ like many are expecting.”
Why the next $BTC halving in April/May 2024 will likely mark our bull cycle TOP rather than the “start” like many are expecting and why we will likely be in the depths of a MAJOR bear market by 2025:
I’ve previously explained that the amount of time we are spending… pic.twitter.com/lQrGSo4rRs
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) August 10, 2023
Bull Market Shift?
The analyst noted that the amount of time markets have been consolidating will be the longest in history. Markets have been range bound for five months now and haven’t really seen any large swings since their climb in mid-March.
The consolidation phases before the bull markets have always been much longer than the parabolic advance, he noted.
“Once we break out of this consolidation I expect that our parabolic phase will begin- and, based on the data below, would expect the parabolic phase to end somewhere around May 2024.”
If this scenario plays out, 2025 will be the beginning of a multi-year bear market, he noted.
However, there were a large number of respondents to the tweet that saw a new all-time high in just eight months’ time as an impossibility.
Nevertheless, the sentiment has been echoed by others, such as cryptographer Adam Back who predicted prices would reach $100,000 at or after the halving. He said that miners would need prices to be much higher to remain profitable as the block reward is cut in half.
Fellow Bitcoiner Samson Mow also predicted a new all-time high for Bitcoin “pre-halving, not post.”
BTC Price Outlook
For now, the consolidation continues, and markets remain in their state of torpor. A very brief kiss of $30K this week has already started to break down, with BTC falling back towards $29K again.
Markets have been gradually down trending since June 21, with $29K serving as solid support and anything over $30K as solid resistance.
Total capitalization remains at $1.21 trillion, a level that markets have oscillated around for the past five months, so maybe a big move upward would not be that outlandish.
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