- Analysts predict that September could be the final phase of the post-halving Bitcoin reaccumulation, with a breakout expected in October.
- Multiple reports indicate that September may witness little or no gain as most traders anticipate a fall to $56k or $54k.
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged 0.72% in the last 24 hours, seeking to break out from the ongoing bearish pattern. However, overall market sentiments remain low, as the price has declined by 8% in the last seven days and 5.7% in the last 30 days.
Historically, this month is supposed to be the deadline for the completion of Bitcoin’s post-halving reaccumulation. With that, analysts have highlighted five key talking points that could facilitate the much-expected bullish reversal.
Labour Day Holiday and Federal Reserve Meeting
According to analysts, the market’s future behaviour largely hinges on the aftermath of the Labour Day Holiday today, September 2, and the Federal Reserve meeting on the interest rates scheduled on September 18. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool estimates that the meeting’s outcome could be a minimal rate cut of 0.25%.
The US unemployment numbers this week are also expected to affect the market movement, as confirmed by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.
We expect elevated volatility and great trading conditions with a focus on August jobs data.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Indicators
According to popular crypto analyst Skew, sellers have dominated the market, rendering buyers powerless and characterizing the low-timeframe market conditions. Supporting his thesis, the analyst shared a chart to confirm a lack of interest in the derivative market at the current price.
Coinglass data also shows a bulk of bid support concentrating on $56,750. Most traders anticipate another fall into the local lows, including $56,000 and $54,000. In case of a bounce back, analysts expect the asset to hit $60k and proceed to $65k.
it’s more like they will push the price to 56k and sweep Tuesday’s low before moving upward. Remember, they may still want to scam hard by pushing the price to 49k (Monday, August 5 low). If the bounce is going to happen after 56k, then my expectation is 60.5k as the first move, then 65k.
For renowned trader Captain Faibik, a relief could send the Bitcoin price to as high as $68k this month.
The Classic Puell Multiple metric
The Puell Multiple metric supports the thesis that Bitcoin is in its transitory phase in the bull market. Currently, Puell is in the neutral zone as it is neither calling a macro top nor bottom. However, it is steadily moving towards the buy zone, marked by a reading of 0.5 or less.
Deep Learning Model Bullish on Bitcoin
According to a recent post, CryptoQuant used the WaveNet deep learning model to make a profound prediction on the Bitcoin price. The outcome was that the price could increase relative to previous forecasts by analysts.
In June, this experiment accurately predicted a sideways movement to just below $60k in the subsequent month. Supporting this with an accompanying chart, it was predicted that BTC could reach $65k in September.
Historical Fall of Bitcoin in September
As we just reported, September historically “spells red” for BTC, as CoinGlass predicts a 4.5% fall. On the contrary, analyst Rekt Capital believes that the Bitcoin price could imitate previous post-halving market behaviours and break out within 150-160 days. Mathematically, this implies that the price could witness a breakout in late September 2024.
The analyst also observed that the best September in Bitcoin’s history only managed a 6% price surge. This indicates that October could be the month for the expected bull run.
After all, October has always historically been a strong month.
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