Is Bitcoin’s Recovery Near? On-Chain Signals You Need to See

Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest dump has market participants speculating whether there will be more bloodshed in the coming weeks or if the asset’s value will record a significant recovery. Market analytics firm Santiment has identified some on-chain indicators that can offer insight into bitcoin’s movement in the short term.

According to Santiment, several on-chain metrics signal that the market still has rocky times ahead, with turbulence triggered by macroeconomic and global concerns. However, BTC reaccumulation by whales and the increasing fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) indicate that positive signs are beginning to emerge.

“The Sky is Not Falling in Crypto”

Since BTC hit an all-time high (ATH) of $109,000 the day before U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, the cryptocurrency has been on a seven-week slump.

Santiment said the fear of missing out (FOMO) did not slow down the rally, as it has often done – this was due to large BTC accumulation by whales and sharks. This accumulation continued until Trump’s inauguration in mid-January, but it began to slow down after the event and stopped in mid-February.

Bitcoin’s price began to record deeper corrections when sharks and whales started taking profit. Prices have continued to plunge even after high capital BTC wallets resumed accumulation on March 3.

Despite the reaccumulation, the amount of BTC moving to exchanges has been high. Santiment found that a combined 22,702 BTC (approximately 0.11% of Bitcoin’s entire supply) moved from non-exchange wallets to exchange addresses between February 20 to March 8. This is a cause for concern because the primary purpose of moving coins to exchanges is often selling.

However, Santiment sees whale accumulation and exchange supply as long-term indicators, so short-term traders ought to focus more on the level of FOMO and FUD the retail crowd demonstrates daily on social media.

An Incoming Bounce?

Examining social media content, mentions of BTC predictions related to lower prices ($50,000 to $69,000) are currently higher than mentions for prices ranging from $100,000 to $119,000.

Santiment says this is a good sign because the crypto market often moves in the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations. The analytics firm is rooting for the social media mentions to spam lower price predictions because it shows that they are still bearish.

Another metric to consider is the average rate of gains or losses from short and long term traders. Bitcoin traders active in the last 30 days have lost 11%, while those active in the past 365 days are down 5%, suggesting that the market is not in historically negative zones yet.

“Don’t be surprised if there is a bit more pain in store first, though. It’s always darkest before the dawn,” the firm added.