Rongchai Wang
Nov 29, 2025 04:34
Bitcoin trading at $90,737.62 down 0.8% as probability of ending year below $90,000 rises to 50%, while Singapore Exchange adds institutional futures trading support.
Quick Take
• BTC trading at $90,737.62 (down 0.8% in 24h)
• Growing bearish sentiment as year-end $90,000 probability hits 50%
• Price testing support near 7-day moving average at $89,420
• Traditional market deleveraging pressures affecting crypto space
Market Events Driving Bitcoin Price Movement
The most significant factor weighing on BTC price this week has been the shift in year-end expectations, with the probability of Bitcoin finishing 2025 below $90,000 rising to 50% according to Derive.xyz data. This bearish sentiment has materialized following Bitcoin’s 4.2% decline that brought the asset to $86,681 earlier this week, marking a seven-month low after the October peak of $126,223.
Market-wide deleveraging has contributed to Bitcoin’s recent volatility, as explained by Binance CEO Richard Teng, who attributed the price pressure to broader risk aversion trends affecting multiple asset classes. This institutional deleveraging narrative has created additional selling pressure as traders reduce exposure heading into year-end.
On the positive side, Singapore Exchange launched Bitcoin and Ether perpetual futures trading exclusively for accredited and institutional investors, providing 24/7 accessibility with high leverage options. While this development supports long-term institutional adoption, its immediate price impact has been overshadowed by the broader bearish sentiment.
BTC Technical Analysis: Testing Critical Moving Average Support
Price Action Context
Bitcoin technical analysis reveals the asset is currently testing support at its 7-day moving average of $89,420, while trading below all major longer-term averages. The BTC price sits approximately 2% below the 20-day SMA at $92,702 and significantly below the 50-day ($102,440) and 200-day ($109,770) moving averages, indicating a clear downtrend structure.
Trading volume of $1.63 billion on Binance spot reflects moderate institutional interest, though below the elevated levels seen during major breakouts earlier this year.
Key Technical Indicators
The daily RSI at 40.06 places Bitcoin in neutral territory, providing room for further downside without reaching oversold conditions. The MACD histogram shows a positive reading of 714.6, suggesting potential bullish momentum divergence despite the negative MACD line at -4,052.
Bitcoin’s position at 0.4159 on the Bollinger Bands indicates the asset is trading in the lower half of its 20-day range, with the lower band at $81,013 representing a key support zone.
Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin Traders
Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $93,092 (24-hour high and 20-day MA confluence)
• Support: $89,420 (7-day moving average and current pivot area)
Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios
A break below the 7-day MA at $89,420 could accelerate selling toward the $80,600 strong support level, representing the Bollinger Band lower boundary. Conversely, reclaiming the $93,000-$93,500 zone would signal short-term stabilization and potential retest of the $107,500 resistance.
BTC Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin has been following broader cryptocurrency market weakness, with risk-off sentiment affecting digital assets more severely than traditional markets. The deleveraging theme mentioned by Binance’s CEO suggests BTC price movements are currently more correlated with leveraged positions unwinding rather than fundamental adoption metrics.
Traditional market correlations remain elevated as institutional traders treat Bitcoin as a risk asset during periods of uncertainty, particularly as year-end portfolio rebalancing approaches.
Trading Outlook: Bitcoin Near-Term Prospects
Bullish Case
Bitcoin could find support at current levels if institutional buying emerges around the psychological $90,000 level. The Singapore Exchange futures launch and other institutional infrastructure developments provide medium-term support for higher prices, targeting a retest of $100,000 if broader market sentiment improves.
Bearish Case
Failure to hold the 7-day moving average opens the path toward $80,600 strong support, with further weakness potentially targeting the $76,322 yearly low. Year-end tax selling and continued deleveraging could pressure BTC price through December.
Risk Management
Conservative traders should consider stops below $89,000 for long positions, while aggressive bears might target $80,600 on any break of current support. Position sizing should account for the elevated 14-day ATR of $3,695, indicating continued high volatility in Bitcoin markets.
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