Bitcoin’s (BTC) Double-Digit Post-Halving Surge Hasn’t Hit Overbought Yet

536 days after halving, Bitcoin’s $126K rally is just warming up, and analysts say the true breakout may be next.

Bitcoin (BTC) scored a new all-time high of $126,100 on Monday. However, profit-taking overpowered the market, and the crypto asset retreated by 4%. by Friday. Then came the Trump-induced fear, and BTC plunged to $101,000 on some exchanges before it recovered to $112,000 as of press time.

Despite this, new data suggest that the real bull market phase could still be ahead.

Bitcoin’s “Warm Zone” Momentum

Binance market data indicates that Bitcoin has entered an important phase in its post-halving cycle, and is showing signs of measured strength rather than a speculative bubble. As of this week, over 530 days since the April 20, 2024, halving, Bitcoin is trading near $112,000, which is an 85% increase from its halving-day price of roughly $63,800.

The data positions the market at 35% through its typical four-year cycle, a midpoint historically characterized by steady but controlled upward momentum.

CryptoQuant noted that the cryptocurrency remains comfortably short of overheating levels. The Z-Score, a metric used to gauge price deviation from historical averages, currently stands at 1.47. This places Bitcoin within a “neutral momentum” zone, well below the 2.5 threshold that has previously indicated speculative excess and impending corrections.

In addition to that, the 30-day moving average sits at about $115,913, and reflects a stable ascent rather than a parabolic rise.

Volatility indicators further support the narrative of a steady climb. Binance data shows Bitcoin’s 30-day standard deviation at approximately $4,540, indicating low volatility and potential price compression. Interestingly, these conditions often precede major directional moves if supported by renewed liquidity inflows.

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Historically, Bitcoin’s price peaks have occurred between 500 and 600 days after each halving, a window that saw major cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021. With the current cycle approaching this range, traders are watching closely for signs of acceleration or deviation from past patterns.

While long-term holders and institutions continue to consolidate positions, the market remains in a phase of balanced optimism. The coming months will test whether Bitcoin repeats its familiar boom-and-peak trajectory or matures into a steadier, less volatile growth phase.

No Euphoria, Yet

Bitcoin Vector’s analysis also echoed a similar sentiment. Although long-term holders moving coins to exchanges suggest some selling, which resulted in a mild pullback, the activity is moderate and persistent rather than excessive. The market shows no signs of euphoria.

If this transfer spike eases while on-chain fundamentals remain strong, it would validate confidence in Bitcoin’s uptrend, supporting continued momentum through Q4.