- Technical analysts, including the “Titan of Crypto” and Ali Martinez, observe recurring patterns suggesting Bitcoin tends to trade at around 50% of previous all-time highs during halving events.
- Historical data shows a 53.4% drop in 2012, setting the stage for subsequent peaks, emphasizing a potential $34,000 target before the upcoming halving.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin has come under strong selling pressure with the BTC price dropping to $40,000 earlier today. As of press time, the Bitcoin price is down 3.65% trading at $41,264 and a market cap of $808 billion. With today’s price correction, Bitcoin extends its weekly losses in double digits to more than 10%.
Market analysts are expecting further price correction all the way to $34,000 ahead of the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024. The pessimistic outlook is grounded in observations of Bitcoin’s historical patterns, particularly those observed before halving cycles. Notably, Bitcoin is approaching its next halving, scheduled to occur in just three months.
In a recent article on X, the technical analyst known as the “Titan of Crypto” highlighted a recurring trend in Bitcoin’s price behavior surrounding halving events. The analyst specifically noted that, in previous cycles, Bitcoin tended to trade at approximately 50% of its previous all-time highs around the time of halving.
Historical Bitcoin Halving Trend
Historical market data reveals that leading up to Bitcoin’s 2012 halving, the cryptocurrency had achieved its zenith at $26.9 in November 2011. However, by the time of the halving on November 28, 2012, the asset had retreated to $12.53, marking a substantial decline of approximately 53.4%.
Interestingly, despite the downturn, the 2012 halving event set the stage for Bitcoin’s subsequent peak at $1,238 a year later. Nevertheless, the asset encountered a downturn afterward, with prices ranging between $550 and $663 in July 2016, coinciding with another reduction in Bitcoin mining rewards. This represented yet another 50% drop from the previous high of $1,200.
A parallel pattern of a 50% reduction in price repeated in the lead-up to Bitcoin’s most recent halving event.
Another crypto analyst Ali Martinez has given a similar price target based on the channel pattern of the technical chart. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has observed that the current price action of Bitcoin aligns with a parallel channel, indicating a potential trajectory.
The analysis suggests that Bitcoin encountered rejection from the upper boundary of the channel at $48,000. According to Martinez, the expectation is for BTC to retrace to the lower boundary at $34,000 before rebounding and aiming for the upper boundary again, potentially reaching $57,000 in the process. On the other hand, Bitcoin miners have also been selling heaving as the BTC hashrate drops by 24%.
It appears this parallel channel is holding true! This suggests that #Bitcoin faced rejection from the channel’s upper boundary at $48,000, and now $BTC will retrace to the lower boundary at $34,000, and then rebound back to the upper boundary at $57,000. https://t.co/2vDqYpwmpi pic.twitter.com/fBiNsmJ10C
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 13, 2024
Last Chance to Accumulate?
As the upcoming Bitcoin halving is expected in April, there is speculation of a 20% decline from the current value of $42,500, in line with the historical pattern of a 50% decrease associated with previous halving events.
Analyst Titan of Crypto highlighted that the potential retracement to $34,000 could present a final opportunity for investors to accumulate Bitcoin at a relatively lower price. This underscores the significance of the next three months for investors aiming to increase their Bitcoin holdings ahead of the anticipated price surge following the halving event.
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