Bitcoin’s price has fallen more than 22% from its all-time high of over $109,000, recorded on January 20, the day of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The sharp decline has sparked concerns among investors, with several key technical indicators signaling bearish momentum.
The downturn comes as new liquidity inflows slow, which has prompted speculation that the latest bull cycle may be coming to an end.
Liquidity Slowdown, Whale Sell-Offs
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju reinforced the bearish outlook by tweeting that Bitcoin’s bull cycle is over. He expects prices to follow a sideways or bearish trend for the next 6-12 months as the market digests recent gains.
A key factor in his analysis is the behavior of “new whales” – large investors who have recently accumulated Bitcoin but are now selling at lower prices. This selling pressure, coupled with reduced demand, has led to increased market uncertainty.
#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action. pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025
To support his analysis, the exec applied Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to various on-chain metrics, including the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). He identified turning points in Bitcoin’s long-term trend by calculating a 365-day moving average.
The data suggests that Bitcoin’s one-year moving average has entered a downward phase, which is historically associated with extended bear markets. If past trends hold, BTC may remain in a corrective phase for the next several months.
Bitcoin Demand Weakening
There has also been a potential weakening in Bitcoin demand. In 2024, BTC saw two demand peaks in March and December, an unusual pattern indicating heightened short-term interest. However, following the March peak, demand momentum significantly declined, which then resembled trends observed between August 2017 and December 2018.
Historically, such patterns have preceded periods of price fluctuation followed by a gradual downtrend. While factors like market size, volume, liquidity, and investor interest have evolved, the overall outlook points toward declining demand.
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