Three Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Fell In January

In short, an overbought market after months of increasing certainty about the SEC’s Bitcoin ETF approvals burst in January and allowed the price to correct some.

Historical #Bitcoin prices for today, January 26th:

2024 – $41,174
2023 – $23,016
2022 – $36,800
2021 – $32,502
2020 – $8,608
2019 – $3,571
2018 – $11,118
2017 – $916
2016 – $390
2015 – $269
2014 – $1,007
2013 – $18
2012 – $5.3
2011 – $0.40

— Historical Bitcoin Price (@HistoryBTCPrice) January 26, 2024

During this time, short-term traders helped pump the price, then went ahead and took profits after the Bitcoin ETF approvals by “selling the news.”

Finally, tougher macro conditions, with a stronger dollar after a months-long slump, have led to more bearish sentiment for Bitcoin’s overall outlook in January.

Here are some more details:

Overbought Market On Bitcoin ETF News

The cryptocurrency industry was ecstatic after a D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Grayscale last August. The crypto hedge fund’s lawsuit alleged that the SEC’s decision to reject its Bitcoin ETF proposal was arbitrary and capricious.

The judge ordered the SEC to make a good-faith effort to approve an ETF. After that, Bitcoin price really began to heat up in October.

Week after week of new headlines with updates about the progress between over a dozen ETF applicants and the SEC kept pushing Bitcoin higher. The average exchange rate on crypto exchanges soared 80% in just a little over four months from $25,811 on Sept. 1 to $46,670 on Jan. 10. The average annualized ROI for that would be well over 200%. As JP Morgan predicted, the price had to cool.

Profit Taking By Short-Term Bitcoin Price Traders

Some Bitcoin investors follow a long-term strategy of accumulating and holding without selling. They are highly convinced that the upside left in cryptocurrency’s global adoption curve is tremendous, and they are loathe to sell any of their holdings. But price arbitrage day traders were apt to take profits in January.

Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo, says the falling Bitcoin price in January was an example of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon in exchange markets for liquid assets. A Motley Fool report says, “It seems like some short-term traders bid up the digital currency’s price in anticipation of the recent ETF approvals and then quickly took profits as the euphoria faded.”

Tougher Macro Conditions, Bearish Sentiment

“Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has been challenged by tougher macro conditions — evidenced by rallying rates and a strengthening dollar,” wrote Sean Farrell, head of digital-asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, in a recent note.

As analysts for crypto exchange Bitfinex wrote in a note Tuesday, Bitcoin price fell in January because “bearish sentiment appears to be prevailing.” They expect key support levels at $38,000 and $36,000 if the correction continues, although Friday’s 5% rally could mean a recovery is afoot.