Spot Ripple (XRP) ETF Highly Unlikely Unless The Following Happens: Analyst

TL;DR

• Speculation about a spot XRP ETF has risen following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the US, but the ongoing Ripple/SEC lawsuit poses a significant obstacle.
• One expert suggests that the launch of the product might be more likely after 2024, pending clearer regulatory guidance.

Are There Any Chances?

The historic approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has given the XRP army (a term referring to the enthusiastic community of XRP investors and supporters) the opportunity to speculate that a similar product with Ripple’s coin as an underlying asset might pop up.

However, some analysts reportedly rejected that option, citing the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the US SEC as an obstacle. According to Townsend Lansing (CoinShares’ head of product), an XRP ETF won’t be possible unless the regulator grants the coin a non-security status. 

Recall that Ripple and the SEC have been involved in a legal battle for years, with the company securing three partial court wins last year. In July, Federal Judge Analisa Torres ruled that secondary Ripple XRP sales didn’t constitute an offer of investment contracts. 

Earlier this week, Gemini’s mysterious tweets involving the coin sparked a speculative frenzy, with many wondering what the company had in mind. A day later, it revealed that XRP perpetual contracts will soon be offered to customers, crushing the hopes of those who expected a filing for a spot XRP ETF.

What About Next Year?

James Seyffart – research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence – is also among the experts who think that such a product would not see the light of day in 2024. He outlined the uncertainty caused by the Ripple/SEC case and the lack of futures XRP ETF as the main reasons:

“We have futures already trading in the CME that are regulated by the CFTC, which is a regulated market, and then we have the futures ETFs, which also are kind of like pushing this thing along as well. We don’t have any of that for Ripple.”

On the other hand, Seyffart believes that a spot XRP ETF might go live in 2025, assuming there is more regulatory clarity.