Two Bloomberg exchange-traded fund (ETF) analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, predicted that there is a 75% chance the United States will have a spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of 2023, following Grayscale’s win against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
While the SEC has approved future-based Bitcoin ETFs, the Commission is yet to green-light any spot Bitcoin ETF application.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Coming to the US in 2023?
Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart have upped their prediction concerning a potential spot Bitcoin ETF launch in the US, stating that there is a 75% possibility that American crypto investors will see the country’s first spot BTC ETF in 2023. Both ETF experts also believe it is “almost a done deal” that such a product will launch by the end of 2024.
“While we factored Grayscale win into our previous 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC with “very little wiggle room.””
The positive sentiment expressed by Balchunas and Seffyart comes after Grayscale scored a major victory against the SEC, with the US Court of Appeals for the District Court of Columbia Circuit vacating the Commission’s decision to deny the asset manager’s application to convert its GBTC to an ETF.
In October 2021, Grayscale filed with the SEC to turn GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, which the agency rejected because the company did not provide adequate means on how it would prevent fraud and market manipulation.
Grayscale responded to the rejection with a lawsuit, arguing that the regulator was being discriminatory by approving Bitcoin futures ETFs but denying spot BTC ETFs. The court ruling described the SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s application as “arbitrary and capricious.”
Experts Expect the SEC to Delay Spot BTC ETF Decision
While the ruling does not automatically mean that the SEC would approve Grayscale’s application, there have been bullish expectations of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval happening soon. Currently, several filings are awaiting the SEC’s decision early in September, including applications from Bitwise, BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco, and VanECK.
Bloomberg Intelligence earlier predicted that a spot Bitcoin ETF could launch before Sept. 4. However, Balchunas said it would not be surprising if the SEC delays its decision on the heels of the recent court ruling but added that approval could happen at any time.
Balchunas also noted that the SEC suffered a PR loss in addition to its legal defeat, suggesting that the Grayscale unanimous victory was covered extensively in mainstream media by major outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, CNN, and the New York Times. Both ETF experts believe the PR and legal losses for the SEC “will make denial politically untenable.”
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