- Bitcoin’s 60-day correlation to the S&P 500 currently stands at 0.6, which is at one of its highest levels, after being near zero less than a year ago.
- Investors are questioning the “Bitcoin is a safe haven” narrative at a time when the Ukraine-Russia crisis is grabbing headlines as gold surges.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been what’s making headlines in the past week, with crypto thought leaders standing with Ukraine and calling out President Vladimir Putin for his actions. Closer to home, the conflict has put into question whether Bitcoin is really a safe haven asset. The crypto crashed with stocks and bonds a few days back and is now up, just as the S&P 500 gains momentum. Investors now ask, “what’s the use of a hedge if it doesn’t work when you need it?”
In the past day, BTC has gained almost 10 percent to trade at $38,550 at press time.
This was after a rough week in which the Russia-Ukraine tensions led most global assets to plunge, Bitcoin included. However, in the past day, the S&P 500 has rebounded and is eyeing 4,300 as risk appetite returns following indications of a ceasefire between the two Eastern European nations.
Today, Bitcoin’s 60-ay correlation with equity indices has hit a record-high at 0.6 out of a possible score of 1. A year ago, the correlation was almost at zero, and according to Noelle Acheson, the head of market insights at Genesis Trading, this shows just how much the market has changed.
eToro’s Callie Cox remarked:
Crypto is slowly becoming a more institutional market. It’s gone from this speculative asset to an investment vehicle.
Philip Gradwell, the chief economist at Chainalysis said in a recent interview:
We’ve been learning that the digital gold narrative was almost too heavy on ‘gold’ and not heavy enough on the ‘digital’ side. People think Bitcoin is scarce and therefore it’s this inflation hedge like gold, and it’s clearly not. Literally, this morning put the nail in that coffin.
Gold has been the safe-haven asset at the time of the crisis, shooting up to highs not seen for seven months.
That Bitcoin failed in its role as a hedge against macroeconomic turmoil is quite significant. In the recent past, Bitcoin maximalists have argued against Bitcoin being considered a currency and advocated for its use as a hedging asset.
Mark Cuban, the eccentric owner of the Dallas Mavericks and a tech veteran is one of the people who early on criticized Bitcoin but in the past few years has joined the industry. He explained that he has always been anti-Bitcoin because its community billed it as a currency. He only joined the industry when BTC was rebranded as a safe-haven asset, he said.
Cuban isn’t alone and many Wall Street giants have only come onboard after Bitcoin started being treated and even regulated as an asset. And with its correlation to stocks and other equity indices, it risks losing this edge and seeing investors opt for other traditional assets.
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