BTC below 40k, short-term holders drive volatility while geopolitics spook markets

With bitcoin trading mostly sideways during the weekend, without any major movement, the top cryptocurrency by market cap still fell under the important $40,000 mark. According to analysts’ data, short-term holders continue to be the main driver of bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility.

The market price of bitcoin stayed around $44,000 during most of last week, printing a seven-day top on Wednesday at just over $44,500, but started to decrease on Friday. Bitcoin barely managed to hold above $40,000 over the weekend but fell through on Sunday. Over the last seven days, bitcoin is down about 8%, at the moment of writing bitcoin is up 2.2% in the past 24 hours, trading at $39,145.

Short-term holders main driver of BTC volatility

According to analysts at both Glassnode and IntoTheBlock, short-term holders are the most likely cohort to spend their coins in response to volatility and continue to be the main driver of BTC volatility. While long-term holders remain unfazed, the balance held by traders – addresses with BTC less than one-month holdings – are moving almost in tandem with the price action.

Since the 24th of February, short-term holders decreased their holdings by 8.7% to 1.55 million BTC. Bitcoin short-term holders currently own 54.5% of all coins held at an unrealized loss amounting to 2.56 million BTC, creating sell-side headwinds for price.

Markets, in general, are in a moody sentiment as geopolitical events set the tone. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, in particular, is on the market’s radar, as is the development in Canada and elsewhere. The downward trend in bitcoin price coincided with the S&P 500 once again dropping during the past week. Meanwhile, gold has soared to an eight-month high.

Almost all top 10 cryptocurrencies follow bitcoin

Meanwhile, almost all top 10 cryptocurrencies follow bitcoin in a downward trend the past seven days. The exceptions are Terra (LUNA) and Avalanche (AVAX) which are up 1.2% and up 0.3% over the past seven days respectively. Ethereum (ETH), the second cryptocurrency by market cap is down 5.4% on the week, but up 2.5% on the daily at the moment of writing.

Bitcoin is down 43.7% since the all-time-high at $69,044 on the 10th of November 2021, while Ether is down 44.1% since its all-time-high at $4878 on the same date.