- Morgan Stanley warns that Bitcoin’s cycle is entering its fall phase, urging investors to secure profits soon.
- Weaker liquidity and stalled inflows weigh on crypto markets, though institutional adoption keeps slowly building momentum.
Morgan Stanley has issued a cautionary signal for cryptocurrency investors, saying the market is now in the “fall season” of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said the data suggests a pattern of three strong years followed by one decline.
He stated,
We are in the fall season right now. Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.
Bitcoin’s recent decline below $99,000 on November 5 reflected this sentiment. The fall placed the token under its 365-day moving average, a level viewed as a major sentiment gauge. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, described this breach as a strong bearish signal.
Market Liquidity Weakens as Crypto Inflows Stall
Wintermute, a major crypto market-maker, reported that market liquidity drivers have weakened. The firm stated that inflows from stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and digital asset treasuries have all reached a plateau. These three components have long supported trading activity and price stability.
Despite weaker liquidity, institutional engagement continues to expand. Michael Cyprys, who leads U.S. brokers, asset managers, and exchanges research at Morgan Stanley, added that institutional investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as part of diversified portfolios.
He noted that ETFs have made exposure easier, especially for investors seeking a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. However, he also pointed out that large institutions typically move more slowly due to internal risk procedures and long-term mandates. Despite this, he said regulatory clarity and ETF infrastructure are gradually encouraging broader adoption.
Bitcoin Price Pattern and Short-Term Outlook
At the same time, analysts noted that Bitcoin’s current chart pattern shows signs of possible stabilization. The daily candlestick chart shows Bitcoin trading within a falling wedge pattern after being rejected at $107,000.
Analyst Mister Crypto commented, “Bitcoin is trading in this falling wedge. The breakout is so close now.” A confirmed daily close above $107,000 could lift the price toward $124,000, marking a potential 19% rise from current levels.
Bitcoin is trading in this falling wedge.
The breakout is so close now.
Don’t give up here! pic.twitter.com/Ka1nu8Sp1r
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) November 12, 2025
Private wealth manager Swissblock said in its latest BTC report that the risk-off signal has shifted back into a low-risk zone, indicating that selling pressure is easing as Bitcoin moves toward recovery. The firm added that a move above $108,500 to $110,000 would confirm a trend reversal.
At present, Bitcoin trades near $104,817, down 0.27% over the past 24 hours.
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