October’s anticipated “Uptober” momentum and seasonal bullish expectations appear to have taken a backseat.
Instead, US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff threats and trade remarks toward China took center stage, and dictated Bitcoin’s sharp price swings and investor emotions throughout the month.
BTC Market’s Emotional Rollercoaster
Trump’s China-related rhetoric in October 2025 reverberated through Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action and on-chain sentiment, as the asset continues to be sensitive to geopolitical risk. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which measures aggregate market psychology through unrealized gains and losses, reflected investors’ shifting emotions throughout the month. On October 10, when Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, Bitcoin tumbled by 8.4% to around $104,800. NUPL simultaneously dipped below 0.50, a level historically associated with rising fear and profit-taking.
A few days later, as Trump adopted a softer tone on China, Bitcoin recovered toward the mid-$110,000 range while NUPL reflected cautious optimism.
However, renewed tensions on October 14, which saw new export controls and port fees, ended up triggering another sell-off, which pushed both BTC price and NUPL lower again. Sentiment began to stabilize only after October 24, when news of Trump’s upcoming summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
Bitcoin climbed above $115,000, and NUPL started to recover. By October 26, reports emerged that Trump might cancel the tariff plan, which further boosted confidence, and NUPL approached 0.52, indicating growing market strength. Pointing to this market volatility and sentiment swings, CryptoQuant stated that geopolitical shocks like Trump’s trade threats don’t just shake prices; they also “reshape market sentiment.”
BTC Shorts Liquidated
As Bitcoin rebounded, over-leveraged short traders got liquidated. The asset now hovers above the $114,000 support zone, a level that recently acted as a strong area of buyer defense. According to crypto analyst Ted Pillows, the next key step for it is to reclaim the $118,000 zone, which has repeatedly served as short-term resistance throughout October’s choppy trading. A move above this threshold, he suggested, could pave the way for a new all-time high within the next one to two weeks.
Not everyone shares the growing optimism. Another market expert, Ali Martinez, for one, warned that the asset could soon face profit-taking pressure, as the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a sell signal on the daily chart – a tool often used to identify potential trend exhaustion.
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