A prominent analyst is pushing back against growing fears that Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a prolonged downturn.
The market technician is using historical price models to show that the current weakness is a typical pause within a larger upward trend, setting the stage for a future peak that could exceed $300,000.
The Case for a Continued Bull Run
In an October 24 post on X, EGRAG CRYPTO pointed to a linear regression model on a logarithmic scale, a tool used to identify long-term trends.
The analysis shows Bitcoin is currently trading at its lowest level relative to its historical trend channel since 2012. And rather than a sign of doom, the analyst framed this as a prime buying opportunity, similar to patterns seen before major price increases in the past.
“Historical Data Never Lies,” wrote EGRAG. “Every single macro cycle in Bitcoin’s history shows the same pattern: BTC consolidates inside an ascending (rising) channel before breaking out massively to the upside.”
He noted that this had happened at least three times before and is currently “setting up again.” According to this model, a return to the midline of the channel would imply a price of approximately $175,000, with the upper band of the trend pointing toward $250,000 to $300,000.
This perspective directly challenges other commentators, like Dr. Profit, who warned in a previous report that a drop below $101,700 would confirm a bear market.
Observers like Axel Adler Jr., have also hinted at the recovery being on track. Earlier today, he pointed out that the price has stayed above a key level of $109,800, and a large number of bearish short positions could give the market the push it needs to make a big move up once volatility calms down.
Meanwhile, data from CoinGecko shows BTC trading around $111,355, having picked up after a sharp decline last week that saw it dip below $105,000. While the flagship cryptocurrency is still down about 8% over the last two weeks, it has climbed more than 6% in the past seven days.
Macroeconomic Forces and Market Psychology
The broader financial landscape also offers reasons for optimism. Investment firm VanEck stated in a recent market report that the drop in prices in October was not the start of a bear market, but rather a “liquidity-driven mid-cycle reset.” It also highlighted that the growth of the global money supply, or M2, will continue to be a major factor in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
This sentiment is echoed by the connection to traditional markets. According to Adler, the S&P 500 is in a “risk-on” mode and its moderate positive correlation with Bitcoin means that if stocks stay steady, crypto could benefit. Furthermore, crypto podcaster Luke Martin shared data on X showing that in the past, after big sell-offs, like the one on October 10, Bitcoin has gone up by an average of 25% over the next 90 days, suggesting history is on the bulls’ side.
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