TRX’s Correlation to BTC Could Result in 4x Surge in 2025: Analyst

Tron (TRX) may be poised for an explosive breakout, with market analysts now pointing to its correlation with Bitcoin (BTC) as a major catalyst.

According to on-chain researcher Carmelo Alemán, TRX could “multiply significantly in value,” potentially even quadrupling, if BTC continues its bull run through the rest of the year.

A Catalyst for Altcoin Growth

Bitcoin, down 0.5% in 24 hours to trade at $109,500 at this writing, remains the gravitational force in crypto markets. As Alemán noted in a May 27 quick take on CryptoQuant, tokens with a high association to BTC, usually measured using the Pearson coefficient, tend to amplify gains during bull cycles.

“A strong correlation with Bitcoin means that tokens sharing this dynamic could experience significantly assured growth,” the analyst wrote.

They highlighted cryptocurrencies like TRX, Sui (SUI), Cardano (ADA), Hedera (HBAR), and Litecoin (LTC) for their historical synchronicity with BTC’s movements. According to them, while Bitcoin’s $2.17 trillion market cap limits its upside, TRX’s $26 billion valuation offers more explosive potential.

“Bitcoin is unlikely to grow more than 2x from its current price,” argued the researcher. “Highly correlated tokens could triple, quadruple, or more, simply because their smaller market caps make such expansions more feasible.”

The king cryptocurrency’s current rally has created fertile ground for connected altcoins. Although it has cooled slightly from its May 22 all-time high (ATH) of $111,814, it has risen 16.4% over the past month. Still, its seven-day performance shows a more modest 3.7% uptick.

Nonetheless, the broader trajectory remains bullish, with BTC up 60% across the last 12 months, riding on the back of institutional demand and exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows.

Against this backdrop, TRX has edged out its more established counterpart across multiple timeframes. Since yesterday, the token has risen 1.9%, while over the last 30 days it has gained more than 10.4%.

However, across the year, TRX has really shone, with its 146.4% improvement more than doubling BTC’s gains in the same period. The upward trend has brought the altcoin to $0.2768, just 35% below its ATH of $0.4313, reached in December last year.

TRX’s Resilience and Risk Metrics Signal Strength

It’s not the BTC tie-in alone that’s driving bullish sentiment. Tron has seen rapid network growth and increased adoption across Asia. Additionally, in a historic shift, the supply of Tether (USDT) on the network surpassed that on Ethereum, signaling rising utility and trust.

CryptoQuant’s recent drawdown heatmaps and risk metrics back this up, showing that TRX maintains one of the most resilient positions in the market, even as other altcoins stumble. The token’s 180-day Sharpe Ratio stands between 0.1 and 0.15, while its Normalized Risk Metric hovers near 0.5, indicating a strong risk-return profile.

Mid this month, data from the on-chain analytics platform also revealed that all TRX holders, from one-week traders to long-term investors, were in profit. This rare alignment often triggers a positive feedback loop, as lucrative users tend to evangelize the asset, attracting new entrants.