What Bull Run? Ethereum (ETH) Posted 4 Straight Months of Losses

The predominant belief is that the cryptocurrency market is in a bull market state that started somewhere around the US elections. Although the past few months didn’t go all that well for most cryptocurrencies, many analysts believe this is just a traditional correction in the broader bull cycle.

But is that true for all digital assets? Let’s check out ETH.

4 Red in a Row

The overall landscape around Ethereum is not all that promising. The largest PoS blockchain faces a substantial revenue decline in terms of fees, while the network itself saw a delay in implementing the next big update, Pectra.

In addition, the network activity has slumped to new lows, which ultimately increases the production of ETH and thus raises the token’s inflation rates. Something that the Merge was supposed to prevent.

Whether these reasons are to blame or there’s more, the undeniable fact is that ETH has underperformed in the past year, and especially since the start of the aforementioned bull market. Back then, the second-largest cryptocurrency stood at $2,400. In the following months, it exploded to over $4,000 on a couple of occasions but couldn’t maintain its momentum and was stopped there.

Not only did it fail to chart a new all-time high, unlike its main rival Solana or even Bitcoin, but the subsequent correction (or end of bull market if you wish) pushed it south so hard that it plunged below $2,000. Its crash went further, driving it down to $1,800 as of now. This means that ETH has erased all the post-election gains and more, as it currently trades 25% lower than it did on November 5.

The monthly charts paint a clear and painful picture. After the explosive November, when ETH closed with a 47% surge, the following four months ended in the red. February and March were particularly violent, with monthly declines of 32% and 18.7%, respectively.

As the graph by CoinGlass shows, ETH’s monthly closures were in the red in nine out of the last 12 months.

What’s Ahead?

With ETH also marking its worst quarterly performance since 2018 with the end of Q1, the focus now goes to – what’s next? Obviously, making predictions about any asset’s future performance is nothing short of speculation. However, we can check what history tells us.

While some analysts believe the current Ethereum prices are a gift for long-term holders, ETH’s Q2s are supporting this view, with one big, massive exception. The asset has registered gains in all but two second quarters since 2016. In fact, it was on a roll of six consecutive ones until that streak came to a screeching end in 2022 with a whopping 67% decline.

Q2 2023 was back in the green, while last year’s ended with a minor decline. So, yes, history is no indication of future price performances, but desperate ETH bulls will certainly hope to reignite the 2016-2021 streak, especially given the triple-digit surge in 2017.