Is It Actually Time to Short Ripple (XRP)?

The XRP army finally got the news it had been waiting for over four years yesterday when Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the US SEC would drop its legal case against the company.

Although this sounds like good news for everyone on the Ripple side, could it actually mean it’s time to short XRP? Here’s why.

Sell the News?

All financial markets are susceptible to the so-called ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ effect. But this is particularly accurate for the crypto industry, and there are countless examples of prices heading north when rumors started to emerge and plunge after the actual development.

Ripple is not immune to this. Recall that its actual rally in late 2024 began with the US presidential elections, as with many other crypto assets, and peaked in mid-January – just ahead of Trump’s inauguration and the changes he promised in the regulatory landscape. Since then, it has been unable to capture the same momentum, even though the changes indeed arrived with the replacement of Gary Gensler as SEC Chair.

Its price surged after Trump mentioned XRP as one of the assets that could be included in the strategic US crypto reserve to over $3. However, it lost all gains immediately and has failed to regain the same traction.

The same scenario repeated yesterday when it pumped from $2.3 to $2.6 after Garlinghouse’s victorious statement on X. Now, it trades below $2.5, leading to the question of whether this will be another sell-the-news moment.

The contrary argument here is that investors are expecting at least two more positive developments on the Ripple front, which could serve as developments that could fuel speculation and rumor buying. These are a potential IPO for Ripple and a US-based spot XRP ETF.

However, remember what happened to the prices of BTC and ETH immediately after their respective ETFs went live last year.

Contrary Trade?

The second warning sign came from popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez. He noted that the social media buzz around Ripple and XRP had skyrocketed after the big win against the US SEC. This is somewhat expected as Ripple’s case was the oldest and had seen multiple rulings over the years. Moreover, the XRP army is quite strong (they will be pissed at this article), and they went all-out on X and other social media platforms.

However, as Warren Buffett, Santiment, and many others have warned over the years – too much hype usually doesn’t end well. This is why Martinez asked whether now is a “great time to be a contrarian?”

$XRP is buzzing loud! Social volume explodes after the recent pump. The market is hyped! Is it a great time to be a contrarian? pic.twitter.com/i7i3iheo0w

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 19, 2025