What’s Next for Markets as $3 Billion in Crypto Options Expire Today?

Around 29,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, March. 7, and they have a notional value of roughly $2.5 billion.

This week’s event is much smaller than last week’s end-of-month expiry, but a mammoth end-of-quarter contract expiry is due on March 28.

The impact on spot markets is likely to be minimal as all eyes are on the White House crypto summit, also taking place today.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s tranche of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.67, meaning that there are slightly more call (long) contracts expiring than puts (shorts).

Moreover, open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, remains high at the $120,000 strike price, which is $1.4 billion, according to Deribit.

There is also over $1 billion in OI at the $100,000 and $110,000 strike prices. Bearish sentiment is also seeping back as $750,000 in OI currently sits at the $80,000 and $70,000 strike prices.

Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live said the group was still “predominantly bearish,” adding that traders were “anticipating further downside while experiencing frustration with extreme chop and volatility.”

It added that most traders were watching the $87k to $89k range as key resistance, with $82k noted as a recent bottom, “though there is significant disagreement on whether a sustainable bottom has been found.”

“Market experiencing extreme price swings with Bitcoin moving $6k in a day, creating what traders describe as ‘scam both ways’ price action.”

Around 223,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring today, with a notional value of $482 million and a put/call ratio of 0.71. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $3 billion.

“Trump tariff announcements (and subsequent reversals) are contributing to market confusion, with many traders sitting out due to unpredictable price action,” Greeks concluded.

Spot Market Tanks

Markets have been extremely volatile over the past 24 hours, with total capitalization dumping around $200 billion following Donald Trump’s executive order for a strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Bitcoin tanked almost 6%, falling from above $90,000 to $85,000 in less than an hour before it bounced off to $88,000. The response came as White House crypto czar David Sacks said the reserve would be capitalized by BTC already seized by the US government.

Retail took this to mean the US would not be buying any more BTC for its SBR and dumped the asset. However, the small print states that the Treasury and Commerce secretaries have been directed by Trump to find “budget neutral” ways to acquire BTC.

Nevertheless, crypto markets remain in the red this Friday morning.