Will Crypto Markets React to $2B Bitcoin Options Expiring 

Around 21,300 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Feb. 14, and they have a notional value of roughly $2 billion.

This week’s expiry event is a little smaller than last week’s, which had very little impact on spot markets, which have lacked luster despite the steady stream of bullish news emerging from the United States.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.67, meaning that there are slightly more call (long) contracts expiring than puts (shorts). The max pain point, or price where most losses will be made, is $98,000.

Moreover, open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, is highest at the $120,000 strike price, which is $1.8 billion, according to Deribit.

There is also around $1.2 billion in OI at the $110,000 strike price, as derivatives traders continue to speculate that BTC prices will rise in the longer term.

Earlier this week, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live said this week’s CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, resulting in a crypto slump, before adding:

“Market sentiment maintained a weak consolidation this week, with Implied Volatility falling to its lowest level in almost a year, despite multiple positive news from the U.S. government side.”

“Short-term IV is particularly low, with current month expiry IV at just 46%, and the options market is expecting lower volatility in the coming period,” it said in an earlier post. The main reason for this is the “continued weakening of bullish forces in the near term,” it concluded.

Feb. 14 Options Data
21,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.67, a Maxpain point of $98,000 and a notional value of $2.08 billion.
176,000 ETH options expired with Put Call Ratio of 0.64, Maxpain point of $2,725 and notional value of $470 million.
Market sentiment… pic.twitter.com/RKr9Tx6JMG

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) February 14, 2025

In addition to today’s tranche of Bitcoin options, around 176,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring with a notional value of $470 million, a put/call ratio of 0.64, and a max pain of $2,765. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $2.5 billion.

“Institutions generally agree that February is going to be a junk time with no market, and indeed, the market looks like it is really lacking in hot spots and money,” Greeks said.

Crypto Market Outlook

Total market capitalization has fallen around 3% on the day, back to $3.32 trillion. However, it remains at the lower lines of a range-bound channel that formed in mid-November.

Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $95,426 but managed to recover to reclaim $96,700 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. The asset remains in consolidation, with resistance lying above the $98,000 level.

Ethereum remains uninspiring, bouncing between $2,600 and $2,700 over the past 24 hours, and is unlikely to move until BTC does.

Altcoins are generally mixed with XRP, Cardano, and Stellar gaining, while Binance Coin, Tron, Chainlink, and Sui fall back.